About Starhandicapper.com I started handicapping horses at a young age, my dad would take me to Aqueduct and Belmont Park on weekends where I started a love affair with horse racing which has never ended. I would ask my dad for the racing form at the end of the day so I could take it home and study the numbers. I was fascinated by all the numbers knowing they all meant something. Like a mad scientist I would dissect each race trying to figure out why a horse won. I was 17 at the time and became totally infatuated when I witnessed the great Secretariat win the Belmont Stakes in 1973. I was hooked, there was no better feeling than the one you felt when the horse you picked came storming down the stretch to win going away. Like an addict I chased the rush race after race, along the way I also experienced the withdrawals getting beat at the wire or the horse you thought was going to run a big races and never showed up. It was a horrible feeling, but like my dad had taught me he said " You need to learn how to lose before you learn how to win". I remember the day my dad handed me the reigns to the form, I was touting a long shot and my dad said it didn't stand a shot, to his surprise the horse won and with a light tap to the back of my head he said " How did you come up with that horse? " It wasn't long before he had complete confidence in me handicapping horses. He no longer looked at the form, instead he would purchase the racing form on Friday night, hand it to me and say " we're going to the track tomorrow, picks us some winners!" Technology that exist today wasn't available when I first started handicapping over 35 years ago. Now a days nearly all horse racing sites use computers to handicap races thus giving them the ability to handicap every track on any given day. I handicap 4 - 5 tracks on any given day. I'm might be one of a few pencil and paper handicappers still out there, my users consider me as their own personal handicapper. Computer picks are great for speed figures or finishing times, but they can't see the little things which can make a big difference in the out come of a race. At Starhandicapper.com you get over 35 years of horse racing knowledge and experience behind each pick. Picks are easy to read and understand with no confusing charts to learn or numbers to try and figure out. You get Best Bets in races where I feel certain horses could be tough to beat or have a chance in upsetting the race along with Long Shot plays. My theory over the years has been picking winners is much easier than trying to figure out who will run second, third and fourth. I've also been know to ace complete race cards above what the law of averages allow. Handicapping Races I've developed my own Speed Figures learning from my mistakes over the years and incorporate them into my handicapping. Speed Figures are just a small part of what I use. Unlike Andy Beyer, Daily Racing Form, Bris Net and Equibase who all use their speed figures to make their selections. I incorporate Race Times, Speed Ratings, Track Variants, Class Rankings, Distance Rating and much more to come up with a figure that helps me eliminate horses rather than pick them. The mistake Speed Figure handicappers make is thinking the horse with the highest figure must be the best horse in the race, sometimes they are but they could have also peaked. Also, lets not forget when looking at a racing form we are looking at a horses past performance that could be 1 - 2 months old. Lots of things may have happened during this period and it's important to look at how a horse has been training coming up to a race. To me the most important races are their last 1 - 2 races. Looking at a horses form further back than 3 races just doesn't make any sense. Favorites vs Long Shots Favorites win on average 30% - 35% of the time thus must be considered in every race. On average there are 3 - 4 betting interest in every race from heavy favorites ranging 3/5, 6/5 and 8/5 to intermediate favorites ranging from 2-1, 5/2, and 3/1. I've hit plenty of Pick 3's and Pick 4's with odds ranging from 7/2, 3/1 and 5/2 with the Pick 3 paying $135.00 and up or the Pick 4 paying $275.00 and up, not to shabby. Waiting for a Long Shot to beef up your payoff can cost you more in the long run because their chances of winning are around 5% - 8%, that's why they are considered Long Shots. One mistake handicappers make is handicapping odds, I never look at odds and only play horses which I feel have a chance in winning a race no matter what their odds may be. Morning Line I've had 7/2 shots pay $30.00!! How can this be? The reason is the track official are responsible for setting up Morning Lines. Their job is to predict as accurately as possible how the betting public will wager on each race. The intention of the morning line is to give the wagering public a general idea of what the odds on each horse is expected to be at post time. It's a subjective system, and is merely educated guess. Keep in mind the morning line does not reflect the odds maker's selections, they are merely a prediction of how the betting public will wager on the race. Once a race is 15 - 20 minutes to post time the Pari-mutuel odds take over and where the handicappers begin to manipulate the odds. If you want to take your handicapping to the next level, avoid looking at the morning line until after you've handicapped the entire card. Handicapping to Win Horse Racing is all about winning, not
running second or third. It's a fact certain trainers give jockeys strict instructions not
to use a horse if the horse is unable to win. This is why I really don't like playing
exacta's, trifecta's or superfecta's. Over the years I've had cold exacta's taken away
because the rider of my second horse stops riding at 1/8 pole, a trainer could have given
him or her strict instructions not use the horse. A jockey doesn't care about your
exacta's, trifecta's or superfecta's., he follows the trainers instructions if he wants to
continue riding for them. Like I said before my selections hit plenty of exacta's,
trifecta's and superfecta's. In fact Starhandicapper.com users hit on average 4 - 5
Exacta's, 1 - 2 Trifecta's and at least 1 Superfecta a day. Horse Racing Facts Finishing Times Many new and seasoned handicappers use finishing times to handicap races. In my opinion Time is for prisoners not horse racing. Here's why: A horse wins it's last race going 6 fur in 1:10.3 on a fast track but lost today by 6 lengths with a finishing time of 1:12.1, how can this happen? They ran slower , shouldn't the horse have won again? There are many factors to consider, one could be today's track variant. The horse may have run it's last race with a track variant of 10 meaning the surface was hard with no give. Today's racing surface was much heavier with a variant of 25 meaning the surface was loose and deep. A good analogy would be running at the beach, if you ran near the water the sand is hard and compact so you are able to run faster, running where the sand is loose is much harder because you would sink. Racing surfaces are normally the same, but after it rains and the surface begins to dry out is when you have a faster track surface than when there hasn't been rain for days and the track begins to loosen up. You will notice track maintenance workers constantly pouring water on the surface after each race on sunny days trying to keep a balanced racing surface. Class A horse is dropping in class from 35k claiming to15K claiming and looks like the drop in class could put him in the winners circle. Not so fast, there are horses who constantly run in 15K claiming races that are tough as nails. Just because a horse drops in class doesn't make it an instant winner, it may be more competitive at the new class, but it doesn't mean it will win. There are horses that can't be beat at certain levels. Be careful when shippers racing with higher claiming prices at inferior tracks ship into a major track and drop in price. Example: A horse has been running at Penn National for a 25K claiming tag and ships into Aqueduct for a 15K tag. There is actually no drop, a 25K claiming tag at Penn National is the equivalent to 15K at Aqueduct. It's actually better to bet a horse shipping from Aqueduct to a cheaper track for a higher claiming tag making it look like the horse is going up in class when in fact it's not and you may get a better price. Distance In it's last race this horse looked like it was flying towards the end in a sprint race, maybe it needs a little more distance to win? It may looked like the horse was closing late, but it could also be the horses in front were getting tired late, this is what I call an optical illusion. Always make sure a horse has been competitive at today's distance before placing a wager on that particular horse. Playing a sprinter going a distance or a distance horse cutting back in distance has different effects on each horse. For a sprinter, it will show more speed going the extra ground because the races are run at slower pace. A horse that has been running in route races will be closing late when cutting back in distance because they're use to running at a slower pace early while maintaining their speed late. A horse that shows lots of early speed at a distance doesn't mean it will win at a shorter distance, in fact they will not show as much speed when cutting back in distance because the times are much faster sprinting than running at a distance. Again, always make sure a horse has been competitive in the past at the distance they are running in today. Shy away from sprinters going a route for the first time, nine out of ten times the horse will not win. You probably have a better shot at winning with a horse going from a route race back to a sprint. Surface Different racing surfaces have huge effects on most race horses. Some may like sloppy tracks and dislike muddy tracks. There's a big difference between Sloppy and Muddy tracks. On a sloppy track the water is still on top of the racing surface making the racing surface fast, where as a muddy track the water has been absorbed into the track surface making it a much heavier. In my past experience horses that are fit will handle muddy tracks better than unfit horses. How can you tell a fit horse from a less fit horse? Horses that run in route races are much fitter than sprinters. As far as Turf races go, again some may like it because there's a bounce to the surface where a dirt track may be loose and unsettling to some horses. It's a fact that good horses can run on any surface. When grass races are taken off the turf because of weather conditions, a trainer knows best if their horses can handle the switch from grass to dirt. If a trainer feels it's horse can't handle the off going they will scratch. You will be surprised by the number of times horses in poor form will win at big odds simply because they have shown an affinity for that day's particular surface or track condition. Weight Factor Does weight have any factor in horse racing? Of course it does, many players ask me how can 10lbs make a difference on a horse that weighs over 1,000 lbs.? Here's another good analogy, we both race 100 yards and we finish heads apart at the finish. The next time we run you have two 5lb bags of sugar strapped on each side of you, who do you think is going to win this time? The same in horse racing, horses are equaled according to the weight they carry. Better horses will carry more weight if it has won recently and running in the same class or is dropping in class . Remember a horse must carry this added weight for 3/4 of a mile and up to 1 1/2 miles. Weight will stop a train and has a huge effect on horses as well. Now there is two types of weight, dead weight and lead weight. Dead weight is made up mostly by the jockey, a jockey weighing 115 lbs. and riding a horse that has to carry 119 lbs. will have 4lbs of lead placed into its saddle. Lead weight is a jockey coming in at 105lbs and has it's saddle filled with 14lbs of weight to reach 119 lbs. Dead weight is much better than lead weight, you want the jockeys weight to make up the difference rather than having a lighter jockey having to carry lead in it's saddle because the jockey can better manage the weight if it's his or her own weight rather than a light jockey having to control a horse with lose lead weights in it's saddle.. Tracks Horses for courses is the old saying, not all race courses are created equal. Now a days track surfaces are made up of different compositions. Take the All Weather Polytrack made from polypropylene fibers, rubber and silica sand all beneath a wax coating which favors horses with stamina. Aqueducts Inner Dirt Track which is more of a sand base surface and meant for Winter Racing where as the main track is more of a clay based meant for Summer racing. Belmont Park is called BIG SANDY because it's more of a sand base track than lets say Churchill Downs where it's more of a clay base. Different tracks have different surfaces and because a horse is able to win at one track doesn't mean he can win at another. Again, good horses can win on any surface especially Stakes and Graded winners, they get shipped from track to track seeking high purse throughout the country. If you need answers to any questions relating to horse racing, please feel free to Email me at questions@starhandicapper.com Good Luck! |